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2013 Semi Finals : The Exit Polls, One Step Before Results

These State Elections were probably the biggest elections ever. There was much hype before the elections. The Media coined it the term of “2013 Semi Finals” and it was the first election after the Modi elevation. Many factors came into play but the top ones remained the Modi Wave factor and the Congress anti-incumbency and of course, the new debutant AAP.

The Summary (Picture Courtesy : Times of India)

Delhi Polls Exit for Congress

Voter Turnout : 66%-72% (Final Figures Yet awaited as polling went on till 9 p.m. in certain constituencies.)

Major Parties: BJP, Congress, AAP

Chief Ministerial Candidates: AAP-Arvind Kejriwal, BJP- Dr. Harsh Vardhan, Congress- Shiela Dikshit.

Number of Seats: 70

Majority Number: 36

Previous Government : Congress Government headed by Sheila Dikshit (43 seats)

The three way Contest in Delhi

The Delhi elections were probably the most exciting out of all the 4 big States that went to elections. Sheila Dikshit and the Congress was fighting a lost battle and the new debutant AAP party was making amazing leaps and bounds daily denting the chances of the BJP, which would have expected a clear sweep in Delhi.

Exit Polls: Nearly all the exit polls show that the BJP will be the single largest party but will not have the required majority to form a government on its own. The Delhi exit polls by C-voter called 20 seats for Congress, 31 for BJP and 15 seats for AAP. AC Nielsen called 16 seats for Congress, 37 for the BJP, and 15 seats for AAP. The exit poll by ORG predicted 20 seats for Congress 20, 41 seats for the BJP and just 6 seats for AAP. And the Chanakya exit poll said Congress would win 10 seats, the BJP 29, and AAP 31. Clearly, the Congress is out of the fray and the only contest is between the BJP and the AAP, unless the AAP decides to join hands with the Congress, which is most unlikely.

BP Opinion: BP predicts that the Delhi Assembly will be a hung house. AAP will make a sparkling debut and will bag 15-27 seats, which will make it the second largest party, or probably even the largest party in the House. BJP may be the likely government makers and will win 25-37 seats, but 37+ seats is highly unlikely keeping in mind AAP’s spectacular debut. Congress will be gutted out of Delhi and may win up to 20 seats, which is highly disappointing because just about 3 years ago Delhi was considered the Congress stronghold.

Trust Vote for BJP in Madhya Pradesh

Voter Turnout :72% approximately

Major Parties: BJP, Congress

Chief Ministerial Candidates: BJP- Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Congress: Jyotiraditya Scindia .

Number of Seats: 230

Majority Number: 116

Previous Government: BJP Government headed by Shivraj Singh Chouhan (143 seats)

Madhya Pradesh is the BJP territory. Aggressive campaigning by top Congress leaders was unable to hide Shivraj’s development plank and the BJP will have no problem in winning back Madhya Pradesh.

Exit  Polls : In Madhya Pradesh, the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP government appears poised to return for a third term, securing 141 seats in the 230-member Assembly, while the Congress will get 77, if one takes an average of the five polls.

BP Opinion: For Shivraj Singh and the BJP, its third time lucky as they say! Madhya Pradesh has proved to be the second Gujarat for BJP. Shivraj’s incredible development record and the Modi wave has thrown over the Congress and all other parties. Nobody can obstruct a BJP win in Madhya Pradesh. Shivraj Singh is all set to return for the third time.

A glorious return to power in Rajasthan

Voter Turnout : 75.25%

Major Parties: BJP, Congress

Chief Ministerial Candidates: BJP- Vasundhra Raje, Congress:- Ashok Gehlot .

Number of Seats: 200 (199 went to polling; the seat of Churu will go for polling on 13th December)

Majority Number: 101

Previous Government: Congress Government headed by Ashok Gehlot (96 seats)

Vasundhra Raje

The Congress’ corrupt image has hurt its repuation. Rahul Gandhi, the star campaigner for Congress in Rajashtan has failed to make an impact and these elections may signify the end of the Gandhi dynasty in India. Vasundhra Raje is most likely to come back to power after five years of the Ashok Gehlot Rule.

Exit Polls: Rajasthan too is projected to deliver a landslide verdict in favour of the BJP, with its tally projected at 110-147 seats in the 200-member assembly across four different surveys and the Congress predicted to win at best 62 seats and at worst 39.

BP Opinion : Vasundhra Raje and the BJP will sweep Rajasthan. The Congress’ anti incumbency will hurt its chances in Rajasthan and elsewhere. BJP will win around 132 seats and the Congress will go down to a mere 50 seats.

Chhattisgarh is not covered in this Article because of unanimity in opinion polls regarding a BJP win and a dismal Congress chance. Counting day is 8th December and the results will be declared on the 8th. Thank you for reading.

About the Author:

This country deserves change more than ever before as we lie on the doorstep of being an economic and strategic superpower. As the youth becomes more active in politics, it has become increasingly necessary for youth voices to air their opinions. My blog presents one such voice. Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tanay Twitter Username : @tanay2110 Email: tanay.chothani@gmail.com

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